WTM London 2026: Growth of tourism in Europe and the impact of AI
Global tourism in 2026 could reach a record 1.57 billion international arrivals. At WTM London, forecasts of strong growth in the European market were presented, along with discussions on investment, public-private partnerships and the impact of artificial intelligence on tourism distribution.
Europe could be welcoming as many as 226 million more international tourist arrivals a year by 2032 than it will in 2026, according to forecasts by Tourism Economics presented at the World Travel Market (WTM) in London from 3 to 5 November.
For 2026, an estimated 1.57 billion international tourist arrivals with at least one overnight stay worldwide are projected, a two per cent increase on the previous year. Europe could see a five per cent increase. These trends are driven by interest in closer destinations amid high travel costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
By 2032, Europe could attract an additional 226 million annual arrivals.
According to long-term projections, European tourism could grow at an average annual rate of approximately four per cent. The number of international overnight arrivals worldwide could reach 2.2 billion by 2032, provided there are no further major geopolitical disruptions.
Tourist spending is also expected to grow. Total spending on leisure travel in Europe, including domestic and international visitors, could reach US$2.05 trillion in 2026. International spending is expected to rise by 11 per cent, and domestic spending by eight per cent. These are nominal values, so part of the increase also reflects higher prices.
High costs of long-haul travel and geopolitical uncertainties are increasing interest in destinations that can be reached by shorter flights or other modes of transport. This opens up opportunities for Croatia and other markets in Southeast Europe. However, European projections cannot be automatically applied to individual countries without separate local data.
Tourist development requires stable investment and cooperation with the local community.
At the first WTM Leaders’ Summit, representatives of tourism organisations and international institutions emphasised the importance of cooperation between governments, private investors and local communities. Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), emphasised the need for stable regulations, investment incentives, stakeholder engagement and long-term planning.
Ras Al Khaimah has set out particularly ambitious targets. According to Philippe Harrison, head of the emirate's tourism development organisation, tourism now accounts for approximately five per cent of the emirate's economy, and the aim is to raise that share to 20 to 30 per cent over the next five to ten years. The development plan covers the period up to 2040 and includes infrastructure, new jobs and the participation of the local population.
Ahmed Youssef of the Egyptian Tourism Organisation emphasised investments in airports and renewable energy sources, stating that Egypt expects a growth in tourist arrivals of approximately five per cent in 2026. Representatives of the Mexican state of Jalisco also emphasised that investors need reliable information on demand, infrastructure and long-term promotion.
Stable regulations and long-term plans strengthen investor confidence.
Transport and public services must keep pace with the growth of the tourist offering.
New jobs and business opportunities should include residents.
Artificial intelligence raises the question of who will control the reservation.
One of the most important discussions at WTM concerned the future of travel distribution. As AI tools take on a greater role in searching, planning and potentially booking travel, the question arises of who will maintain the direct relationship with the guest: the hotel, the airline, the travel agency, the OTA platform or a new AI intermediary.
Merilee Karr, founder and CEO of UnderTheDoormat Group, believes that major travel brands with a recognisable name and direct access to supply could gradually reduce their reliance on online travel agencies (OTAs). Smaller service providers may still need intermediaries to reach customers.
Amit Shamni from Bridgify, part of the HBX Group, emphasised that trust in the brand remains important regardless of the technology a user uses to find a journey. Representative of the Chinese platform Fliggy, Leon Li, warned of the rise of conversational search, while Adam Oubuih from Atout France drew attention to the problem of fragmented destination data.
Destination, date, budget and needs.
Collection and comparison of information.
Directly or via a distribution platform.
For hotels, travel agencies and destination organisations, this increases the importance of up-to-date, structured and comprehensible information on the supply. However, claims of a possible weakening of OTA platforms are, for now, merely predictions by conference participants rather than confirmed changes to the business model.
Accessibility and local consumption are more important than the number of guests alone.
Spain has unveiled the next phase of the Spain For All initiative, dedicated to more accessible tourist experiences. Industry representatives have warned that generic accessibility labels are not enough: travellers need specific information on entrances, lifts, toilets and other facilities to assess for themselves whether a venue is suitable.
Dr Gregory Burke of AccessAble emphasised the importance of understanding individual travellers' needs. At the same time, representatives of Iberostar, Much Better Adventures and the Los Cabos Tourism Board raised the question of how much tourism revenue remains in the destination and how it is distributed among the local population and entrepreneurs.
For seasonal destinations, this could mean developing the offering beyond the main tourist areas, involving local suppliers and extending the operating season. Such measures can increase the value of tourism without relying solely on an increase in visitor numbers.
What do the WTM messages mean for Southeast Europe?
The expected growth in European tourism provides a favourable framework for Croatia and neighbouring markets, but it does not guarantee equally good results for every destination. Travel agencies and tour operators need to monitor changes in how people find travel, hoteliers develop reliable digital channels, and destinations align their promotion with transport, staffing and infrastructure capabilities.
The projected 226 million additional international arrivals to Europe each year by 2032 represents significant market potential. How much of that growth individual destinations convert into sustainable revenue will depend on the quality of investment, the competitiveness of their offerings and public–private sector cooperation.
