Ryanair cuts its planned winter flight schedule due to expensive fuel and warns of higher prices in 2027.
Ryanair is cutting its planned traffic for two million passengers and is entering the winter season more cautiously. The reason is the sudden rise in aviation fuel prices, and the company warns that the same pressure during 2027 could lead to higher ticket prices across Europe.
Ryanair now expects 214 million passengers in the financial year ending 31 March 2027, instead of the previously planned 216 million.
The correction comes after a strong summer. In August, the carrier transported 22.2 million passengers, six percent more than the previous year, while the load factor remained at 96 percent.
Winter growth is no longer attractive enough
The problem is the price of the extra capacity.
Around 80 per cent of Ryanair's fuel requirements for the current financial year are hedged at approximately $67 a barrel. Meanwhile, the market price for jet fuel has hovered around $140.
This means that every additional flight outside the hedged fuel volumes carries a significantly higher cost. Therefore, during the winter, Ryanair is no longer planning the previously expected growth, but instead wants to keep traffic at approximately last year's level.
The company estimates that such a move could reduce winter losses by 70 to 100 million euros.
The hedging policy protects Ryanair, but it doesn't solve the problem
Ryanair is in a more favourable position than carriers that have locked in a smaller portion of their fuel requirements. Nevertheless, the current decision shows that even strong hedging is not a complete protection if high market prices persist.
As existing contracts expire, airlines will gradually have to buy a greater share of fuel at the new prices.
That is precisely where Ryanair sees a risk for the European market in 2027.
Lower capacity could push up ticket prices
If oil prices remain high until the summer of 2027, Ryanair expects some of the less-protected carriers to be forced to cut capacity.
Such developments would quickly be felt in prices. Fewer seats on the market, alongside unchanged or growing demand, leaves more room for average fares to rise.
For travel agencies, TMCs and other buyers of airline capacity, this means that the period of very aggressive low-cost pricing could become less predictable. At this moment, the biggest risk for 2027 is not a drop in demand, but a combination of more expensive fuel and more cautious capacity management.
